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according to the Research of Gordon Day (1981)
The following material is quoted from:
"The Identity Of The Saint Francis Indians" by Gordon M. Day, National Museums of Canada, Ottawa 1981, National Museum Of Man Mercury Series ISSN 0316-1854, Canadian Ethnology Service Paper No. 71 ISSN 0316-1862. [pg. 43-44]
This attack, popularly known as Rogers' Raid, became famous, especially in New England where it seemed to be the action that put an end to eighty-five years of Indian attacks. The basic document for the expedition has always been Rogers' own account in his published journals, and this has furnished the basis for most of the retellings of this event. Rogers thought that he had killed at least 200 Indians leaving 20 women and children to be taken prisoners. He took 5 children and burned all the town but three houses (Rogers 1961: 106-107, 111). Historians have sometimes extrapolated his statements and said that the Saint Francis tribe was destroyed. This is an error.
French observers on the spot soon after the massacre reported only 30 dead, 20 of these being women and children (Pontleroy a Bourlamaque, 6 octobre 1759, PAC, Coll. Bourlamaque 3:159; Pontbriand au ministre, 9 novembre 1759, Quebec Archives de l'archdiocese 1887 2:8; BRH 42:550-553; Levis 1889-1895 l:224). ... The French figures would seem to be the more reliable because the French had a better opportunity to learn the facts. Moreover, although the French might have wished to conceal a large loss in their official reports, the reported figures are confirmed in their internal correspondence where there would be no motive and little chance of concealing the complete destruction of Odanak. Rogers might be suspected of exaggerating the effect of his expedition to cover up his considerable losses, but his figure had to be based on an estimate made during an evening reconnaissance of the village and the assumption that everyone, except the 20 survivors whom he saw, perished in the burning houses or were shot trying to escape. Sulte and Charland pointed out the discrepancy in the reports, but did not resolve it (Sulte 1886:103; Charland 1964:117-118).
Abenaki historical tradition presents us with the most probable explanation. According to this tradition, one of the Indians in Rogers' force secretly warned the village, and many of the villagers slipped away from the village and hid. This is not at all improbable. ... Other Indians were already sleeping at a distance from the village to get away from the noise of the nearly all night celebration which was going on -- a wedding according to some, a victory celebration according to others and a corn dance according to others (Stark 1831:160-161; Harrington 1869:14-16; Day 1956-1979).
Even though Rogers' estimate was wrong, it nevertheless has some value. Given 20 survivors and an assumed 200 killed, he must have estimated the population the night before the attack at about 220. The village must have contained a disproportionate number of women and children at that moment because many warriors were away. Auger's estimate of 500 survivors of the raid may be fairly close, but it is not clear how he arrived at it (Auger 1959:290).
Some warriors had been sent by Vaudreuil with a detachment of Canadians to try to meet Rogers before he reached Odanak (Vaudreuil a Bourlamaque, 3 octobre 1759, PAC Coll. Bourlamaque 2:395-396; Vaudreuil a Levis, 3 octobre 1759, Levis 1889-1895 8:110). Rogers was told by prisoners that 300 French and some Indians were at the mouth of the Riviere Saint-Francois waiting for him and that 200 French and 15 Indians had gone to Yamaska. It is important to note the small number of Indians involved and the fact that some of them were from Becancour, not Saint-Francois (Rogers 1961:107; Charland 1964:114, fn 16). The first pursuers of Rogers' retreating Rangers were French militia with some Abenakis who had hidden from Rogers' attack and had returned (Pouches 1781 2:151; Charland 1964:115).
Three years later, the missionary Roubaud wrote an account for General Amherst in which he stated that the village of Saint Francis consisted of almost 500 persons at the time of Rogers' attack (Roubaud 1762). Roubaud was then the missionary at Odanak, and he was on the scene the morning after the attack. His figure for the population of Odanak before the attack is probably the best we have, even when we take into account his switching of allegiance and his desire to curry favor with Amherst and the British authorities, since we lack figures for the several contingents of warriors who were absent at that time.
On their retreat from Saint-Francois, the Rangers broke up into small groups. One of these groups followed the Missisquoi River towards the Lake and were picked up by the Indians. At this time the Missisquoi Indians had partly withdrawn to Saint-Francois and Becancour and partly remained at the French fort on Isle au Noix (Memoire sur les forts de la Nouvelle-France, BRH 37:412; Renaud d'Avene des Meloize in RAPQ 1928-1929:85; Charland 1964:83-84).